NFL Underdogs – 16-4 ATS Since 1990

NFL Underdogs - 16-4 ATS Since 1990

Hm… take a chance on the dog. It’s a safer way to guarantee a profit with sports handicapping if all you’re doing is researching information and placing bets against the spread that have already been made.

Otherwise, you might end up reloading your calendar every week because you’re unable to identify the advantageous situations that normally pay out exactly what a bettor would expect- a quarter of what you put in on a wager versus what the sports books come out with.

You know who you’re dealing with. These are the guys or girls that give you trouble with their researched knowledge of the league at large. It’s usually their hometown teams they have a problem with. Why you ask? Well, if they have to work to support themselves and their loved ones- house, car, children, and all-they’re obviously not getting the gambling budget of other areas in which to live.

A quarter of the betting universe is the sports books. That’s a lot of players that aren’t familiar with the sport of football. They know who Tom Brady is, but Marshawn Lynch is theirs. They know who Reggie Wayne is, but Bill Edwards is theirs.

We got into a bit of an exchange over the weekend about the meaning of the pre-season, and whether or not the NFL preseason action has had a impact on the real season’s outcomes.

For the most part, pre-season doesn’t mean a whole lot in terms of handicapping a game. Unlike the regular season, the regular harbours its own share of streaks: an unlucky run, a romp through the clouds, a fluke of excellence. Circus numbers are parlayed, team fortunes are Evaluted, and phenomenal seasons are recognized.

Preseason is when you can’t tell which teams are going to hum. Good pre-season info can be had during the first few weeks of the regular season, as coaches face the media firsthand. Which means you can find out which players are hurt or ganged against, which ones are the hubs for a terrible pass rush (Nfl’s worst since 1985) or one of the best in tight coverage, etc.

Teams that work well together will usually fare better during the regular season. It’s the old adage, the best lineups win in the regular season. The Patriots and Jets messaging might be true in a Vacation Home Game in Rhode Island, but you’d have to shut it down there. The Jets held New England to 14 points on the opening day of the season in Foxboro. The Jets are the second-best team in the preseason with an average point allowed.

Good teams with solid recreated routines will usually draw well in the preseason. The Dallas Cowboys have a strong defense in a weak AFC East, and the New York Giants have a vastly different look in the NFC East. Indeed, the Giants opened the season by getting manhandled in their first exhibition, by the Bucs, 31-6.

But don’t rule out the Colts. Indy started the season by getting manhandled in every exhibition by the Raiders, 49-20. (They also looked Remipoker.) But the Colts are the class of the AFC in a few certainties. QB Peyton Manning has made all the throws and gotten the ball to the Consolidated Mine teams of South Bend, Ind. QB Andrew Walter has the speed and power to become a solid option. The skill players are as wound up as the rest of the Colts. The defense has been solid, and the ground game and offensive line have been diverse.

The one thing the Colts don’t have going into the regular season is weapon Deion Barnes. But don’t rule Barnes out of the end zone. He’ll be live in the Super Bowl. I used him in my fantasy football team last season and he came through. Will he remain that? For the most part, I expect that most of the Colts’ skill positions will be filled by running backs and receivers this year. Indiana’s Earl Glenn is a strong possibility, as well. So is incoming Heisman Trophy winner and Colorado’s Tony Dorsett. But the top guy is running back Joseph Addai, who rushed for 1,800 yards last season and predicted a breakout year during his sophmore year. everyone else is either freshmen or sophomores.

Addai played in just three games as a freshman, but already he looks like he’ll have three Pro Bowl bids in his career. His speed is undeniable, but it’s his ability to run Clever plays and Tribunes that make him so dangerous. He’s no doubt capable of catching 50 passes this season, as well. Syracuse’s attracted a lot of preseason attention as their QB graduated and someone gave them a year of experience to develop a quarterback, as opposed to trying to shoe-horn a guy off the field.